Fig. 1

State transitions observed via time-lapse microscopy can be explained by different mechanisms. a During a time-lapse microscopy experiment cells are imaged over multiple time points. From these images, spatial configuration, cell proliferation and changes in cell state, e.g. via surface markers (we consider only two states, indicated by black and cyan) can be obtained. However, these observations do not inform about the underlying mechanisms that caused the transition in cell state. For example, the state transition could be entirely random (b), where cells spontaneously undergo state transitions (indicated by dice), it could depend on time (c), such that the transition rate changes in the course of the experiment (indicated by clocks). Alternatively, the transition could depend on local cell density (d), e.g. cells with higher local cell density preferentially transit from one state to the other