Figure 3

Posterior time courses. Sample median (solid line) and 90% credible interval (CI, shaded area) for the numerical solution of the time courses based on the τ=1 HMGU (blue) and ICRP (red) MCMC samples for the complete plasma data (A), urinary excretion rate over time of the complete data (B), plasma data of exemplary investigation 15 (C), and urinary excretion rate over time of exemplary investigation 15 (D) on a log-log scale. The median and CI represent the uncertainty in the parameters, in contrast to measurement uncertainty (not shown). Colored markers are the data points. The median and the 90% credible interval were computed pointwisely at each time point over all MCMC-based solutions. For readability we truncated plasma plots at 1·10⁻⁵[%] and urine plots at 1·10⁻⁶[%/d].